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Chance & odds: Accounting for nature and other more or less wild things

(originally published in Simulation Gaming News, Jan. 1976)

As much as I hate to admit it, there are things beyond my control - the weather, for example. Earthquakes, forest fires, volcanic eruptions, solar eclipses and sunsets, for more examples.

Early in the origin of our species we made rather strong attempts to claim responsibility for all these bizarre phenomena. We sang, danced and sacrificed various virgins in the hopes that somehow our rites would right whatever wrongs we had wrung.

Our assumption of responsibility resulted in a profound sense of helplessness and guild. We created professionals to take the blame for us but, eventually, most of our magicians failed to bear the burden, and so we did away with them.

Thus, we gave birth to the notion of nature. The nature notion really did nothing to prevent the moon from phasing, but it did effectively free us from our sense of guilt about it all, and allowed us to evolve a slightly less passionate view of the whole thing.

We decided that, since we weren't able to do anything about the weather, we could at least make allowances for it. Somewhere in our dark past a light fell on the face of an early settler, who said, "We'd get warmer if we stopped dancing and invented a good stove." Thus, we learned to honor our opponent and to evolve a bit more equal relationship, which we later called science. We learned to predict and prepare.

It is my currently unfounded belief that the key to the establishment of civilization was the invention of the coin - not because it provided for the establishment of an alternative to barter, but because it could be flipped. This gave birth to far more than mere flippancy. It allowed us to play with the very forces that had once controlled us. We had, at long last, an effective way of symbolizing nature.

This naturally gave rise to the development of the art of gambling. Through gambling we exercised our ability to take risks. We could invest our very lives, if we so wished, in a mere prediction. Thus, we could simulate and ritualize our relationship to nature. We could play with the very thing that had once driven us to despair.

I see the new priests of our economy, solemnly sitting around the fire, tossing coins. I see the coins spinning in the flickering light like planets in their courses. I see the act of flippage as a recapitulation of arbitrary fortune, a vision of the dance between life and death, a vivid portrayal of man's destiny being given over to the winds of the unknowable.

This act was too important to be symbolized by coins. They had other, more mundane functions. Something more was needed, something belonging solely to the realm of play. And thus we created dice.

Dice. Six-sided. No longer divided into mere yes and no, life or death, heads or tails. But now able to symbolize a whole scale of significance. And we inscribed the dice with numbers in such a way so that the opposite sides always added to seven, perhaps indicating, even in this profound statement of our new conception of the irrational nature of nature, the still primitive faith in consistency.

Playing with two dice led to a higher step yet. The nature (yes, nature) of two dice is such that it tends to speak in certain combinations more frequently than others. This, of course, embodies the concept of probability, thus representing still another advance in our relationship to nature. The more we know the dice, the more accurately we are able to predict how they may fall.

The nature of evolution is such that it does not follow a single path. The natural strategy is the proliferation of successful alternatives. Thus, we develop lots, spinners, cards, and the famous teetotum.

Each device focuses on a particular aspect of the relationship between man and nature; each is an embodiment of yet another element.

The teetotum, which is now almost extinct, is a four (or more) sided top. It performs the same function as does a die, except that it takes a bit longer to fall to rest. It must have been created by people who could take the time to be fascinated. We spin the top. We watch it begin to wobble. We shudder in anticipation, waiting for the universe to make up its mind.

As our technology increased, we created the spinner, upon which we could inscribe all sorts of arcane incantations. We were no longer confined by equality. We could divide the spinner into any proportions we wished, inscribing different probabilities to different possibilities.

The ultimate actualization of the spirit of the teetotum was the roulette wheel. The roulette wheel, with its proliferation of possibilities, with its long, agonizing spin, with the little steel ball which actually seals our fate before the wheel has slowed enough to allow us to discover what has already been decided - the roulette wheel is ultimate. After the lightning has struck, we must still wait until the storm has passed before we can determine our losses.

The casting of lots symbolizes yet another relationship between man and nature. Here we have a portrayal of the phenomenon of being singled out. In the earliest form of this device, the lots were bones, all but one similar. We drew blindly from the venerated skull. In trembling fingers, we grasped the bone which would indicate who could take comfort in sameness and who would bear the burden of responsibility. And then, when the last had been withdrawn, we compared.

Thus, we metaphorized the finger of fate herself: who shall live and who shall perish. Lots were a vivid portrayal of the arbitrariness by which one is chosen over others to be exalted or to be eliminated. Through lots, we evolved a paradigm of what we later called natural selection. And from the concept of lots we emerged into the glories of the democratic process and bingo.

Lots have been refined to a deck of cards which can be shuffled, and so constantly randomized. In order to assure that each player faces the same degree of chance, each card can be returned to the deck after it has been read and acted upon. Though the vision embodied in this device seems somewhat despairing, it is nonetheless accurate. For all of our science, we still must face the unpredictable.

The modern deck of playing cards is perhaps the most complex of all of our pseudonatural creations. It imposes an order onto the chaos. There are three overlapping dimensions: color, suit and number. We thereby embody the notions of kind and degree. Our universe has taken on aspects of rationality. Nature, though ultimately beyond control, once again has shape.

Probably even before we were able to admit to the concept of nature, we had inklings of yet another manifestation of the arbitrary. As we learned of events which were beyond our control, we must have also learned that there were aspects of our relationship to each other that were also, equally beyond our control. This phenomenon is what we eventually called "human nature."

Once we discovered that we do, indeed, fool each other; that we cannot completely predict how we will affect each other; that, in fact, we can fool ourselves as easily as each other - then gaming became one of our most pervasive social art forms. We evolved the shell game, we celebrated the human carnival, and man created poker. We created boards with multiple paths. We made pieces and gave each player several so that even more choice (as to which to move) was available. And then, just as we insist on playing with the predictability of natural nature, we set out developing strategies which would allow us to predict human nature.

We can portray nature through a variety of media, each medium embodying a particular relationship between man and the arbitrary. Coins, dice, spinners, tops, sticks, wheels, shells, cards - each portraying a concept of reality, significant and whole, and yet each different.

My thesis is that a game designer needs to know these tools as well as the reality she wishes to portray. When I created my simulation of the county jail system, I looked at each interaction in terms of the degree of arbitrariness with which it was conducted. I looked at what was predictable and what was not, what presented options and what created restrictions. The success of the game, I believe, lay in the accuracy with which I chose its devices.

There are games which use several chance devices. Monopoly® uses both dice and cards. In the face of such arbitrariness, players cannot predict with total success, but they can try to prepare. The arbitrariness of human nature is made manifest by the availability of money and property.

With the technology available to us, we are able to make chance devices which are almost infinite in scope. We can construct completely unpredictable systems (I have recently discovered that this can be accomplished by my car as well as by a computer), and then make them almost as predictable as we wish. The question is not of efficiency of the art, but of the accuracy and integrity with which we use it. 

 

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